Wisconsin basketball brings historic offense to title game
A familiar face heads an aggressive TCU Horned Frogs defense that awaits a prolific Wisconsin basketball offense
An offensive revolution continues to pay dividends for Wisconsin basketball. With the new-look Wisconsin Badgers offense, head coach Greg Gard is taking his program to rarely seen scoring heights. Averaging 91.2 points per game, UW’s third-highest average through six games in program history, the Badgers are on the verge of capturing a third-straight holiday tournament title.
While putting together its second-best six-game start of the Gard era, the Badgers (5-1) have scored with tremendous efficiency. UW’s 122.3 adjusted offensive rating is its third-best mark of the KenPom era, behind only the mark set by UW last season and its national runner-up squad in 2015. On the offensive glass, Wisconsin is pulling down rebounds more often than it ever has under Gard, while enjoying its second-best turnover rate in the two-time Big Ten Coach of the Year’s 11 seasons.
In an era of layups and threes, the Badgers are attempting a greater share of shots from beyond the arc while making a higher percentage of their shots from two than ever before. In its 104-83 victory over the Providence Friars in the semifinals of the Rady Children’s Invitational, UW attempted 40 three-pointers, tying a single-game program record dating back to 2001.
Now, the Wisconsin offense faces a significant test in a championship game matchup with the TCU Horned Frogs (4-2). Head coach Jamie Dixon’s squad boasts the 35th-best defense by KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rating—second-best, trailing only BYU, among teams UW has seen to date.
Who to watch: TCU basketball guard Brock Harding
The Horned Frogs’ starting point guard should be familiar to Wisconsin basketball fans. After spending two seasons with the Iowa Hawkeyes, Brock Harding has taken his talents to Fort Worth, Texas. There, Harding has stepped up to the task after coming off the bench in Iowa City.
As a facilitator, the junior distributes the ball well, following up on a sophomore season in which he finished 38th nationally in assist rate, according to KenPom. In TCU’s 84-80 victory over the Florida Gators, Harding logged a 19-point double-double with 12 assists. He can, however, be susceptible to turning the ball over at times. Earlier this season against the Kansas City Roos, who rank 339th nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, Harding committed six giveaways.
Wisconsin logged 10 steals against Providence. With its 11 takeaways against the Campbell Fighting Camels, the Badgers have two games with 10+ steals already, tying their total-season mark from the 2024-25 campaign.
As a scorer, Harding excels at getting to his spots in the paint and around the rim, despite his slight size. The 6-foot guard showcased crafty scoring talent and the ability to get to the paint against a Florida frontcourt that measures significantly taller and longer than Harding, despite not yet finding his three-point shot this season. After connecting on nearly 40% of his attempts from deep a season ago, Harding is shooting only 5-21 from beyond the arc at TCU, and missed all six of his attempts against UF.
What to watch: Horned Frogs’ perimeter pressure
Harding is among the reasons TCU’s defense has maintained its high level of consistency under Dixon. On a per-possession basis, the Horned Frogs rank 10th nationally in turnovers forced, and Harding ranks 10th among all players in steals.
TCU frustrated Florida’s offense by applying pressure on the perimeter, preventing the Gators from consistently getting the ball inside to their bigs. Although Wisconsin is more willing to play from beyond the three-point line than UF, which ranks 345th in three-point shooting percentage, the relentless pressure remains an issue for any team facing TCU. Beyond forcing Florida into tough shots, the TCU defense disrupted many high-low offensive sets that the Gators tried to run.
Wisconsin runs some similar offensive looks, particularly with forwards Nolan Winter and Austin Rapp.
Why to watch: John Blackwell needs his bounceback
Rapp, after a disappointing day against the BYU Cougars, bounced back with a 20-point outburst against Providence. Badgers point guard Nick Boyd scored a career-high 33 against the Friars and is scoring 21.5 points per game, the second-most of any player in the Big Ten.
But NBA Draft hopeful John Blackwell has had a perplexing couple of weeks.
When Gard added a new ball-dominant guard in Boyd to the lineup, there were bound to be growing pains for Blackwell. After playing alongside AJ Storr and John Tonje, adapting to slightly different roles offensively is not a new challenge for Blackwell, but it takes time.
The junior scored in double-figures against Providence, but only shot 2-10 from the field. Blackwell has consistently found his way to the free-throw line, like when he poured in 14 points despite shooting only 3-13 against BYU, but has struggled to find his shot inside.
In Wisconsin’s last four games, Blackwell has made only four of his 17 shots from inside the three-point line. Opposing coaches have sung praises for Blackwell’s mid-range game, but he has not gotten to his spots as consistently as of late.
If the Badgers win a third-straight holiday tournament championship, and their fourth in five years, it will likely be in no small part because Blackwell plays a significant role against an aggressive defense.
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