Wisconsin basketball vs High Point: 3 looks at the analytics
The Wisconsin Badgers are back in the NCAA Tournament alongside the March Madness elite, but the numbers say a challenging 5/12 matchup awaits
Madison, WI — In the past 27 NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournaments, only five programs have appeared at least 25 times: the Gonzaga Bulldogs, Michigan State Spartans, Kansas Jayhawks, Duke Blue Devils, and the Wisconsin Badgers. Michigan State, Kansas, and Duke boast a combined 11 national titles and are three of only 15 programs to win the NCAA Tournament multiple times. The Gonzaga Bulldogs’ 47 wins in the big dance trail only the Purdue Boilermakers’ 51 for the most all-time without winning a national championship.
Despite leading a program that has consistently found itself among the college basketball and March Madness elite, Wisconsin basketball head coach Greg Gard does not take it for granted.
“I know it’s become commonplace here, and—you know it’s not commonplace everywhere,” Gard said after the NCAA Tournament Selection Show on Sunday. “So I think the one thing that I always remind myself, and hopefully remind everybody else, that this doesn’t happen easily, doesn’t happen by accident.”
It did not happen easily for a Wisconsin Badgers (24-10, 14-6 Big Ten) team that, before it made a third-consecutive trip to the Big Ten Tournament semifinal, was on the outside looking in at the March Madness picture in January.
“There’s a lot of people and a lot of time and a lot of effort that goes into this, and a lot of people have their fingerprints on it, to be able to be in this consistently over the past quarter century is amazing,” the coach who has been at the helm of the Badgers for a decade added. “And it’s a credit to all the people that have had—like I said—players, coaches, support staff, everybody that’s had their hands in this has—I just don’t want to ever take it for granted, because it’s not, it’s not easy to accomplish.”
After accomplishing that first goal, five-seed Wisconsin now looks ahead to its Thursday matchup in Portland against the twelve-seed High Point Panthers. On paper, the analytics bear out a fast-paced matchup with two high-flying offenses. Before UW can look ahead to a potential second-round matchup, it will be tested by a veteran-laden, deep team with a knack for sniffing out the basketball.
“I don’t care where we get sent, who we have to play. Just eager to have the opportunity to make a deep run,” said Gard.
A veteran team that knows how to win
Under first-year head coach Flynn Clayman, the Panthers swept the Big South regular season and tournament titles, going 30-4 overall and 15-1 in conference. Regardless of what league a team is in, winning 30 college basketball games is a tall task.
“When you win 30 games, it’s not by accident,” Gard remarked on Sunday.
HPU is one of only six teams in the country (Miami OH, Arizona, Duke, Michigan, Gonzaga) to lose fewer than five games this season. Putting the Miami Redhawks aside, High Point has played a significantly weaker schedule than those other four teams.
The Panthers have played 22 Quad 4 games, going 22-0, are 5-2 in Quad 3, and are 0-2 in Quad 2 with zero Quad 1 opportunities. Those two games in Quad 2 stick out like a sore thumb. The losses came at UAB and at Winthrop, neither of which finished in the top 130 at BartTorvik. High Point lost both those contests by 17, although the Panthers did defeat Winthrop by two points on HPU’s home court and by 15 in their conference tournament title game.
In High Point’s loss at Winthrop, forward Cam’Ron Fletcher was unavailable. The transfer by way of Kentucky, Florida State, and Xavier missed six games in January. The sixth-year senior is averaging 9.6 points per game since Clayman moved the 6-foot-6 journeyman from a starting role to come off the bench.
“They’ve had a terrific year,” Gard added. “Most of their losses were early they haven’t many, they’ve only had four, but a lot of those came early.”
HPU has only one loss on its resume since December 15th and currently boasts the nation’s longest winning streak. With a first-year head coach and significant roster turnover (losing four of five starters) from a program that made the NCAA Tournament a season ago, the Panthers found their stride in the second half, much like the Badgers.
“What stands out to me most of all is their record 30 and four, and I don’t think they’ve lost game in a very long time,” Wisconsin point guard Nick Boyd said on Monday. “So that kind of reminds me of the team, you know, team I’ve been a part of, you know, great record, and guys who know how to win with experience. And you know, that’s the that’s a scary thing when you step into March Madness, and you have to respect that.”
All but one player in Boyd’s Florida Atlantic Owls team that advanced to the 2023 Final Four was an upperclassman. The only exception was Boyd in his redshirt sophomore year. Four of five HPU starters are seniors. Eight of the nine players who consistently appear in the rotation are upperclassmen.
That veteran presence throughout the Panthers’ lineup has created some of the most reliable depth in the sport. High Point is 22nd nationally in bench scoring, with its reserves contributing 30.41 points per game. Wisconsin is 244th in bench points.
Expect a high pace and number of points
Whether the points come from its starters or the bench, HPU has a penchant for putting the ball through the hoop. Led by sixth-year senior Terry Anderson’s 16.0 per game, High Point boasts the nation’s third-highest scoring offense, averaging 90.0 points per contest, behind only Miami OH and Alabama.
Those points have come from efficient shooting as the Panthers’ .566 effective field goal percentage ranks 19th in men’s Division I. HPU is not an elite three-point shooting team, but it does have a pair of deep-shooting threats. Starting guard Scotty Washington is connecting on 38.2% of his shots from three-point range this season. Off the bench, sixth-year senior Chase Johnston has made 48.5% of his threes, including a 3-3 performance from beyond the arc in the Big South Tournament championship game.
The efficient offense is boosted by HPU’s performance inside the arc. According to BartTorvik, High Point ranks in the top-35 in both two-point shooting percentage and free-throw rate.
Where the Panthers really make their hay is in transition. Do not blink after a basket is made by either team on Thursday. High Point scores 18.88 fastbreak points per contest, the third-highest mark in the country. HPU trails only Georgia and (UW’s potential second-round opponent) Arkansas in that metric.
“Every team, if they can get easy baskets, wants them, right?” Gard said of High Point’s fast-paced offense. “I mean, there’s every, no team in the country is going to turn down opportunities to score in transition.”
According to BartTorvik, the Panthers’ adjusted tempo is 49th in the country.
Old March adage vs. Panthers defense
Wisconsin basketball fans will be giddy every time they hear analysts repeat the line that guard play wins in March. Boyd and junior guard John Blackwell are among the very best backcourt pairings in the country. The All-Big Ten honorees comprise one of just five high-major duos averaging 18.0+ points per game.
“I think probably just how the game has changed in terms of the scoring, in terms of all the rule changes, guard play has become even more accentuated, and rightfully so,” Gard said. “I mean, those guys typically have the ball in their hands, you know, and you have quicker possessions and the game itself is a little—is faster than it was, you know, 10, 20 years ago. Just the pace of play universally is up.”
In addition to their ability to score, the Badgers’ ability to take care of the ball will be tested as both teams look to push the ball in transition on Thursday. High Point and Wisconsin both take tremendous care of the basketball and are each top-five in offensive turnover rate according to BartTorvik. It is on the defensive side that HPU creates a wide gap.
The Panthers’ ball pressure has made them among the best teams in the country in turnovers forced. Defensively, High Point ranks fifth nationally in turnover percentage as it generates a DI-best 10.9 steals per game. With its prowess for valuing the ball on offense, HPU boasts the second-best turnover margin in the country, forcing an average of 7.0 more turnovers than it commits per game. Only four teams nationally boast an average turnover margin of +5.0 or greater.
Because of Wisconsin’s lack of forced turnovers (UW sits sub-300 in turnover rate forced), it is sub-100 in turnover margin despite its top-10 assist to turnover ratio.
“It’s, it’s obviously important,” Gard added on the importance of guard play in March. “And I think obviously we’ve got really good ones, starting with Nick and John, and then obviously the job that Andrew [Rohde] and Braden [Carrington] have done has been, you know, instrumental as well.”
This article has been updated to correct a statistical error detailed in the comments.
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I think there must be a typo in this, "HPU... averages over seven turnovers forced for every one turnover committed.." They've forced 558 turnovers, and committed 318.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/high-point/men/2026.html#all_totals_team