Wisconsin basketball begins sprint to Selection Sunday
A successful Wisconsin basketball road trip out west, beginning with a matchup at the Oregon Ducks, is critical to polish off an NCAA Tournament resume
With less than three weeks until Selection Sunday, Wisconsin basketball is officially in the home stretch of its regular season. The Wisconsin Badgers will play three of their final four games on the road, beginning with a critical road trip out west.
Wisconsin (19-8, 11-5 Big Ten) is looking to continue a dominant stretch since the turn of the calendar. Since January 1st, the Badgers have boasted the 4th-best offense in the country, according to BartTorvik‘s offensive efficiency metric.
UW’s first opponent in its west coast swing, the Oregon Ducks (11-17, 3-13 Big Ten), have not fared as well this season. A slew of injuries and an untimely losing streak have put UO on the verge of its worst season in nearly a generation.
But as the Ducks have gotten one key contributor back from injury, it is Oregon’s blemished resume that makes it so critical that Wisconsin take care of business Wednesday night in Eugene.
Who to watch: Can Nate Bittle pull a rabbit out of a hat again?
Oregon is on pace for its worst season in well over a decade. In the sixteen seasons head coach Dana Altman has been at the helm, the Ducks have never had a losing season. If you add Altman’s previous stops to the mix, this is shaping up to be his first losing season since 1995-96 and only the 41-year head coaching veteran’s fourth-ever sub-.500 campaign.
Do not, however, dismiss UO as a program in decline too quickly. These Ducks have been marred by injury as reigning All-Big Ten contributors Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle have been in and out of the lineup. Star guard Shelstad, who had been averaging 15.6 points per game, is out for the season. Bittle, however, returned earlier this month from a foot injury that sidelined him for five games.
The first time Wisconsin and Oregon met as conference foes, a season ago inside the Kohl Center, the Badgers squandered a 17-point lead en route to an overtime defeat. The Ducks trailed by as many as 14 points with 6:15 remaining in regulation in that contest. Between that final stretch of the second half and overtime, Bittle scored 10 points and added an assist, powering the UO comeback.
On Wednesday night, perhaps Bittle can change Oregon’s fortunes again. In the Ducks’ last game out against USC, the center recorded a 14-point double-double with 11 rebounds and a career-high four steals.
If Bittle, who is averaging a career-high 16.7 points, 2.5 assists, and 2.0 blocks in his senior campaign, maintains his post-injury trajectory, he stands to pose a significant challenge to Wisconsin’s interior presence. The 7-foot, 250-pound standout has scored at least 14 points in each of Oregon’s last five games.
What to watch: Wisconsin basketball might be able to win through offense alone
The Badgers are on pace to finish 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Bart Torvik. That would be UW’s second-worst defense since the 2010-11 season, but it might not matter against the leaky Ducks.
Oregon ranks 91st nationally in defensive efficiency. In 14 matchups this season against teams with defenses rated 60th or worse nationally, Wisconsin has scored at least 80 points 12 times. The Badgers are undefeated, 17-0 overall, when scoring at least 80.
Wisconsin has scored 90+ points in 11 games this season, the most 90-point outings in a single season in program history. Its 124.2 offensive efficiency rating would be its 2nd-best of the KenPom era.
Schematically, UW may be able to outpace UO in both points and tempo. Wisconsin shoots more threes per possession than almost any other team in the country; only 11 teams shoot from deep more often. Because the Badgers have a penchant for making those shots from beyond the arc, that could present a problem for the Ducks. Oregon ranks 216th in three-point rate allowed.
Altman’s best hope at containing Wisconsin and the speedy point guard Nick Boyd may be dictating the pace of play. Oregon ranks in the bottom 100, 265th in Division I, in adjusted tempo, while Wisconsin is 88th.
Although the Badgers’ defense has been questionable throughout this season, this may be a matchup in which UW’s offense, so long as it dictates the pace of play, can simply choose to outscore its opponent.
Why to watch: NCAA Tournament resume home-stretch
There are very few, if any, “bad” losses on the road to take in the Big Ten, but Oregon approaches that territory. Regardless of how injuries have obscured the quality of this Ducks squad, 10-straight losses in Big Ten play from January 5th to February 9th have put an anchor around UO’s neck.
That is not a team UW wants to have a loss to on its resume.
Wins over potential top-four seeds Michigan, Illinois, and Michigan State have Wisconsin back where it hopes to be on Selection Sunday. According to Bracket Matrix, the Badgers currently sit as a consensus six-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but are much closer to slipping to a 7-seed than moving up a seed-line.
If Wisconsin manages to earn a road win either at Washington or Purdue to close the season, it will be a significant feather in its NCAA Tournament cap. The more important task ahead of Selection Sunday, however, is for the Badgers to avoid bad losses to Oregon and Maryland.
When, where, how to watch Wisconsin basketball at Oregon Ducks: TV, radio, streaming
When: Wednesday, February 25th — 10:00 p.m. Central
Where: Matthew Knight Arena — University of Oregon — Eugene, Oregon
Watch: Big Ten Network (Play-by-play: Guy Haberman; Analyst: Don MacLean)
Listen: Badger Radio Sports Network // Sirius XM 83 (Play-by-play: Matt Lepay; Analyst: Brian Butch)
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