How Badger men's hockey uses 11-days off; bracketology guide
Wisconsin men's hockey is in a precarious position and needs some help to clinch an NCAA Tournament spot just days away from Selection Sunday
Madison, WI — An untimely, lopsided loss in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament gave the Wisconsin Badgers some extended time off last week. When Selection Sunday finally rolls around, eleven days will have passed between then and the day Ohio State eliminated the Wisconsin men’s hockey team in the conference tournament. UW head coach Mike Hastings started that extended break with something maybe a bit surprising: a day off.
“To me, it’s—you get away from it for 24 hours, and then you get right back to work with the assumption that we’re going to prepare for what our opportunity is going to be,” the third-year head coach of the Badgers said after last week’s defeat.
The quarterfinal round of the Big Ten Tournament has been a nightmare for No. 12 Wisconsin (21-12-2, 14-10-0 Big Ten) since the league began sponsoring men’s ice hockey during the 2013-14 season. The only times the Badgers have advanced past the quarterfinals are when they have had a bye to the semifinal round in 2014, 2017, and 2021.
Although UW was unable to exorcise those conference tournament demons, its attention now turns to the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin boasts the fourth-most national titles among men’s DI ice hockey programs, but it has not won a game in the tournament since its runner-up finish in 2010.
Wisconsin Badgers men’s hockey bracketology update
When the final buzzer sounded inside the Kohl Center last week, the Badgers could at least take some solace in the fact that they were most likely still going to the big dance. At the time, Wisconsin had over a 99% chance of making the field with an at-large bid, according to the College Hockey News probability matrix.
“At the end of the year, you get to a point where either your book of business is good enough, or it isn’t,” Hastings said Wednesday.
UW’s resume, or “book of business,” as Hastings often puts it, looks impressive enough. The Badgers amassed a 3-3 record over teams with a top-three rating in the NCAA Percentage Index (NPI) and a 5-6 record over teams in the top ten this season. Ultimately, where Wisconsin finishes in the NPI rankings will determine whether it is in the field.
The selection committee creates the bracket by placing a 16-team field comprised of six auto-qualifying tournament champions and 10 at-large bid recipients. Those at-large teams are the ten highest-rated teams in the NPI that do not receive an automatic bid. When teams below 16th in the NPI win their conference tournament (colloquially known as “bid thieves”), teams within the top-16 that did not earn their auto-bid are, by consequence, pushed out.
That process puts Wisconsin, currently 12th in the NPI and mathematically guaranteed to finish there, in a precarious place. Its at-large chances have fallen to 89% headed into conference tournament championship weekend because of results throughout the country. Hockey East, Atlantic Hockey America (AHA), and Central Collegiate Hockey Association (CCHA) are all guaranteed to be represented by bid thieves in the conference tournament.
That reality puts Wisconsin currently as the 15th team in the field, needing at least one of the two remaining conference tournaments to go UW’s way.
Badger men’s hockey bracketology rooting guide
Fans should keep their eyes on the ECAC and Big Ten Tournaments this weekend. A combination of Clarkson or Princeton winning the ECAC, along with Ohio State winning the Big Ten, would end the Badgers’ season.
On Friday, while Wisconsin hockey fans should be paying close attention to the women’s Frozen Four, they should keep a second screen on the ECAC semifinals. The Princeton Tigers and Clarkson Golden Knights are potential bid thieves playing in opposite semifinals. Clarkson faces the Dartmouth Big Green at 3:00 p.m. Central. Princeton faces the Cornell Big Red at 6:00 p.m. Both games will be streaming on ESPN+.
Dartmouth and Cornell are both firmly in the field, ranked within the top ten of the NPI, but Princeton and Clarkson are each outside the top 20. If the Big Green and Big Red win on Friday, the Badgers will have mathematically clinched a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Any other result, however, keeps the door open to Wisconsin being left out.
If both Princeton and Clarkson advance to the final, or if one wins both Friday’s semifinal and Saturday’s title game, and steals the ECAC’s auto-bid (beginning at 4:00 p.m. on ESPN+), Wisconsin will be pushed to the last team in the field, and all eyes in Madison will turn to Ann Arbor.
The top-ranked team in the country, the Michigan Wolverines, hosts Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament title game on Saturday night. Puck drop between the border-state rivals is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. The game will be televised on Big Ten Network.
By upsetting Wisconsin and the Michigan State Spartans on the road last week, OSU is within one win of the NCAA Tournament. Winning the Big Ten’s auto-bid, however, is the only way the bid-thief-to-be Buckeyes can get into the field.
A recap/shorthand for your notecard:
Dartmouth and Cornell win on Friday: Badgers clinch NCAAT spot
Clarkson OR Princeton win on Friday: watch ECAC title game
Dartmouth or Cornell win on Saturday: Badgers clinch NCAAT spot
Clarkson or Princeton win on Saturday: watch B1G title game
If needing to watch B1G title game after Clarkson/Princeton bid
Michigan wins on Saturday: Badgers clinch NCAAT spot
Ohio State wins on Saturday: Badgers eliminated if and only if Clarkson or Princeton won ECAC title game
Wisconsin captain Ben Dexheimer said after last week’s loss that no matter what was going to happen between the time his team was eliminated from the conference tournament and Selection Sunday, the Badgers will prepare as if they are in the field.
“There’s no reason to sit around and do anything but that,” the senior defenseman said. “I think that we’ve given ourselves a chance to play in the tournament, and we’re going to prepare like we’re guaranteed to be there.”
“If we have another opportunity to live another day together and put those jerseys on as a group, we wanna make sure we put our best foot forward,” Hastings commented.
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